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The Election Chat

As to ridding himself of the image of an "unsafe" leader, I guess K'nidhi won't manage that little trick -- not until he puts basic law and order ahead of appeasement. I mean, why did Coimbatore begin? Because for a minor matter -- three boys killed a cop, the cops demanded their arrest, the local MP and MLA promptly intervened and demanded they be released, giving the local cops the feeling that they were not safe. So the cops in their turn sic-ed a fundamental fringe against their enemies, using them as the stalking horse to fight their own battles. Firm intervention right at the beginning, and none of this need have happened. K'nidhi's trouble is he doesn't seem to have realised that uniform treatment is better than being seen to favour one or the other community.

Saisuresh Sivaswamy (Mon Mar 2 1998 20:27)

Talking of Karunanidhi's record on this front, which is dismal, I cannot but recall the tenure of M G Ramachandran as Tamil Nadu's chief minister. Malign him for all that he had not done for the state, but one thing he never compromised on was law and order. I remember, Id processions through the Muslim ghettos, like elsewhere in the country, have been a cause of potential trouble, but on the eve of major festivals, MGR would summon the religious leaders of all hues and tell them in no uncertain terms that trouble would be met with trouble.

And back home there is a saying which roughly translates as: a good beating is more beneficial than one's own brothers. And this blatant threat, to Hindus and Muslims, really kept them in check. Perhaps the state needs an iron hand...

Prem Panicker (Mon Mar 2 1998 20:29)

Sai>> BTW, did you notice that this sudden upsurge in rabid communalism actually began during the previous Jayalalitha regime? Clashes and wholesale deaths everywhere, while the cops were busy organising the lady's foster son's wedding, that was one of the reasons why she lost last time -- but suddenly, her role in this whole thing is forgotten. More examples of the political cliche that public memory is notoriously short?

Saisuresh Sivaswamy (Mon Mar 2 1998 20:40)

In 15 minutes we will be joined in the chat room live from Madras, Era Sezhiyan, veteran parliamentarian, a former leading light of the Janata Party in Tamil Nadu and now all-India general secretary of the Lok Shakthi. He is one of the most erudite parliamentarians in the south, and should have deep insights into the way Tamil Nadu voters have behaved.

Rediff@BJP Head quarters, Delhi (Mon Mar 2 1998 20:57)

Hello everybody we are back at the BJP central office. Will the best man, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, fail to be the groom. Will the perpetual bridesmaid remain so...?

Rediff@BJP Head quarters, Delhi (Mon Mar 2 1998 20:58)

These questions will most probably answered in a high level meeting of the Left and the United Front leaders which is going on now...

Rediff Team, Congress HQ (Mon Mar 2 1998 20:59)

Early in the morning there is so much of activity in the AICC headquarters. If uncertainty and despondency marked the first day of counting for the Congress yesterday, the reverse seems to be happening today. Congress leaders are yet to come to their offices but groups of party workers have already arrived here shouting "Sonia Gandhi zindabad".

Rediff@BJP Head quarters, Delhi (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:0)

With almost 25 seats more to get for a simple majority, the BJP is still groping for the elusive number... It is as if Vajpayee's words have come true...

Rediff@BJP Head quarters, Delhi (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:2)

In every election rally he would tell the crowd that it was all a numbers game. Now that it has come to the crunch, what remains to be seen is that whether Uttar Pradesh will be re-enacted here in Delhi, with members of Parliament switching sides by the hour...

Saisuresh Sivaswamy (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:4)

Rediff@BJP hq: Hello and good morning. Can you find out from them what went wrong in UP and Bihar, where the party was expected to do much better? Bhandari did not appear to have helped the BJP along, has he?

Rediff Team, Congress HQ (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:4)

With the Congress and its allies now sure to touch the 170-mark, hectic talks between top Congress and United Front leaders have begun in the capital. Congress leaders like Ghulam Nabi Azad, Sharad Pawar and Pranab Mukherjee have had a breakfast meeting today. They are expected to meet Mulayam Singh Yadav soon.

Rediff Team, Congress HQ (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:7)

There is not going to be any split in the Congress, given the impressive performance the party has given this time. In fact, most Congress leaders did not expect the party would get more 130 seats. Now that the Sonia Gandhi factor has had an impact on the Congress, the most important place today and tomorrow for the party will be 10, Janpath.

Rediff Team, Congress HQ (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:9)

The Congress leadership is now veering around the idea that the party will be able to form the next government with the help of the United Front partners.

Rediff Team, Congress HQ (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:11)

The biggest plus point in favour of the Congress is the impressive number of seats the Samajwadi Party has won in the elections. Top Congress leaders are to meet the SP chief Mulayam Yadav today to rope him to join hands in a Congress-led government.

Rediff@BJP Head quarters, Delhi (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:14)

Govindacharya, the key strategist and the general secretary of the party has just said that the party would not repeat Uttar Pradesh in Delhi and would consider this as a mandate for BJP (which would mean even if it falls short of a simple majority)...

Rediff@BJP Head quarters, Delhi (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:15)

"Ho jayenga yaar...chintha math karo...milenge pachees seat," is how a high level functonary reacted to the quesry about making a government when the party has fallen short of a simple majority...

Rediff Team, Congress HQ (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:16)

The Congress leadership is also meeting the Left front leaders today asking for their unconditional, outside support to a Congress-led government. The Left front leaders are meeting at 12 today separately to chalk out their poll strategy. But now that the United Front has received a huge setback in the polls, its constituents are unlikely to hold together as a bloc. That is advantageous for the Congress.

Rediff@BJP Head quarters, Delhi (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:18)

Delhi is a city which goes to bed early, and the BJP office here is still to wake up. But the process has begun, with sweepers cleaning the yard and the police frisking everyone who had the teremity to enter the BJP HQ...

Prem Panicker (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:18)

The final player is Mr Others -- total seats among those declared, 11. The breakup is SJP 1, SDF 1, BSP 1, RPI 2, HLD 3, TRC 1 and independents, 2.

Prem Panicker (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:19)

Rediff-BJP-Delhi:: Wow, that sounds like a despatch from the war zone! :-)

Era Sezhiyan (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:19)

Welcome to the Era Sezhiyan chat. All-India General Secretary Lok Shakti. The election results as expected have come to produce a hung Parliament. The pity is that not only no single party has obtained an absolute majority in the House but that no alliance of parties could fulfil this task. At present, the BJP and its allies have crossed the 250 mark. Still they may require about 20 seats more.

Rediff@BJP Head quarters, Delhi (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:20)

The temporary passes that were issued with much fanfare two days ago seem to be of little use. No one even bothers to check them. All that's important is that you don't carry your walkman in, "It might be a bomb, you know," was the explanation given to us.

Saisuresh Sivaswamy (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:21)

Mr Era Sezhiyan: How will you explain this behaviour on the part of the Tamil Nadu? Its voters exploding every single poll? And personally, did you anticipate such a vote from them?

Rediff@BJP Head quarters, Delhi (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:21)

In the lawns outside our little room, senior leader Govindacharya is giving an interview to a TV crew...

Rediff@BJP Head quarters, Delhi (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:23)

In spokesperson Venkaiah Naidu's room, Sahib Singh Verma was monitoring the trends with the help of a TV set and a few cronies who were busy taking down the details spewed out by the set...

Era Sezhiyan (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:23)

Shalini: A government, if necessarily to be formed, should be either under the leadership of the BJP or the Congress. It is clear that the United Front has lost too heavily to claim leadership. But even assuming the Congress and the whole conglomeration of United Front parties come together, they still have to seek additional number from independents or other parties that don't come under one of the three alliances. How far will desperate parties like the CPM, DMK, TDP and others in the UF who are fighting the Congress in their states go?

Rediff@BJP Head quarters, Delhi (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:24)

And, next door, a youth leader of the BJP was busy on the phone, trying to get the exact details of the state of the party in Haryana and Bihar.

Rediff@BJP Head quarters, Delhi (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:27)

It seems the BJP game plan has gone awry. It never expected a rout in Maharashtra. The thinking, particularly after the exit polls, was that the party would get around 240 to 250 seats from the rest of the country and Tamil Nadu would be a happy hunting ground after the polls...

Era Sezhiyan (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:28)

Saisuresh: See, I would say the poll survey has not been done properly and scientifically. Those of us who went on the field and know of the growing disaffection of the masses with the local government and the non-functioning central government, were quite aware that the poll survey findings were far from correct. We should question not the behaviour of the people but of the credibility of the pollsters.

Prem Panicker (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:28)

Rediff-BJP-Delhi>> In the party office there, what are the leaders saying about Maharashtra? Any analysis of what actually went wrong for the alliance in the state?

Rediff@BJP Head quarters, Delhi (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:28)

BJP ideologues had asserted before the results came in that the party would be able woo the DMK and the TDP; it would be able to make it to the magical figure of 273 comfortably...

Rediff@BJP Head quarters, Delhi (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:29)

Now that the party fared badly in Maharashtra and may get leads in 248 seats only with the help of the AIADMK, the game is thrown wide open...

Era Sezhiyan (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:29)

Saisuresh: I expected a fifty-fifty chance for each alliance but the results went farther from my own expectations in favour of the AIADMK alliance.

Prem Panicker (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:29)

MR SEZHIYAN: Following up your response to Saisuresh, what are the key issues, in your view, that caused the fall of the DMK-TMC combine? What exactly were the voters in TN voting against? Or for?

Rediff@BJP Head quarters, Delhi (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:31)

As CPI-M general secretary H S Surjeet has already said that the Left Front will support a Congress-led government, it has become all the more difficult for BJP to get additional support from regional parties that have gone to the polls with the UF on an anti-BJP platform...

Prem Panicker (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:32)

Meanwhile, on the Star News network, CPM general secretary Surjeet, in flip flop mode, is attempting to justify his new stand that the CPM would not be averse to backing a Congress bid for power.

Era Sezhiyan (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:34)

Ram: Constitutionally it does not follow that the DMK government should resign on the basis of the people's verdict in the parliamentary poll, but politically it is left to the Chief Minister Mr.Karunanidhi, the leader of the DMK to consider the question on the basis of political morality.

There have been instances in the past that a regional party which fared badly in the Lok Sabha polls successfully won the Assembly elections, as in the case of the MGR government in 1980. In 1984-85, Ramakrishna Hegde, then CM of Karnataka, submitted his resignation when the performance of his party was very poor in the Lok Sabha poll. Three months later, he faced the electorate and got a clear mandate for his government.

Rediff@BJP Head quarters, Delhi (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:34)

Prem, even yesterday the leaders had said that it is anti-incumbency factor that went against them in Maharashtra and Rajasthan. Even the DMK-TMC combine's failure in Tamil Nadu is shown as another example of the people turning around to vote against the party/coalition in power...

Rediff Team, Congress HQ (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:35)

If the Congress is to go ahead with an alliance with the UF, how will the party justify the just-concluded elections is what everybody is wondering here....

Rediff@BJP Head quarters, Delhi (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:36)

Yet the party did not anticipate a complete wipe-out. It expected to get at least 22 seats in Maharashtra. It is felt that the RPI-SP-Congress alliance is a very formidable one...

Saisuresh Sivaswamy (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:36)

Mr Sezhiyan: Sonia Gandhi launched the Congress campaign in Sriperumbudur. And, traditionally, the Tamil voters have been soft on the Gandhi family. Yet, the party has been squeezed out in the state, why? Is it that the crowds merely came to see Sonia? Or is that the Congress organisation in the state is so non-existent that it could not convert the crowds into votes?

Prem Panicker (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:37)

Rediff-BJP-Delhi>> "Anti-incumbency" is one of those words that make you feel oh, no big deal -- but what we really mean, whether in Rajasthan and Maharashtra or TN, is dissatisfaction with the existing government, right? Would be interested to have a BJP leader explain why two state governments of the party are facing this kind of backlash. :-)

Era Sezhiyan (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:39)

Amlan: It is for the UF leaders to answer. My understanding is that having fought BJP vehemently as a non secular party, it may be difficult fopr them at least for the constituent parties like the CPM, CPI to think of any support directly or indirectly. But it is quite possible that there may be realignment of the parties now in the UF to make some sort of adjustment for supporting the BJP govt. Most of the parties in the UF are fighting the Congress in the respective states. So, ideologically they have committed themselves to fight the BJP at the national level, in practice, they have to fight Congress in the respective regions. So, it may not be diffcicult for them to choose the political necessity rather than the ideological compulsion.

Saisuresh Sivaswamy (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:42)

Prem: Just an aside. The Indian cricket under Tendulkar that could not convert into victories, and the BJP under Vajpayee. Any similarities? Does the BJP need an Azharuddin, you think?

Prem Panicker (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:45)

Sai>> *grin* Well, Sikander Bhakt would surely like to think so... but as with cricket, so with politics. We tend to think that our favourite team has only to walk out there to win, forgetting the other bloke is in there to do his damndest, too. I dunno, I increasingly think that today's pol is pretty clueless about what exactly is going on in the electorate's mind... He kind of bumbles along and hopes for the best, bit like Srinath batting in the slog overs.

Era Sezhiyan (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:46)

Saisuresh: The sympathy wave that arose from the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi was cashed to the full in the 1991 polls in TN. The same drum cannot be played again. Further the Congress organisation itself has splintered with the vast majority going with the TMC. So, the crowd that came to pay respects to the memory of Rajiv Gandhi when Sonia Gandhi visited was only a formality, without deeper political motivation.

Rediff@BJP Head quarters, Delhi (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:47)

Prem, anti-establishmentarian feelings are not confined to the BJP-ruled states. Though the TDP has not fared badly like the DMK-TMC, it is way behind the Congress. Similarly, in other states like Karnataka and, to a lesser extent in Kerala, the ruling party is not faring at all well...

Rediff@BJP Head quarters, Delhi (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:49)

We expect to have the multi-lingual key strategist of the BJP, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh pracharak turned BJP general secretary Mr K Govindacharya with us any moment...

Rediff@BJP Head quarters, Delhi (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:51)

With talks slated to begin later in the day Govindacharya would be able to give a clear picture of things as they stand now and how things are going to emerge...

Rediff Team, Congress HQ (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:53)

With an over cast sky this morning, it is still early in the day in the Cong office. The defeat of VC Shukla would be some more bad news for the Cong.

Era Sezhiyan (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:54)

Muthu: Want of stability at the Centre, disaffection against the local government, the over-confidence of the DMK-TMC leaders, all might have contributed to some extent in the final crushing defeat given to them. One thing to be borne in mind. The parliamentary poll is a matter of national concern and the performance of the UF government for the last 21 months had been deplorable.

Hence, there was loss of credibility for the UF and the two major constituent parties namely the DMK and TMC in the minds of the Tamil nadu people. Further the bomb blasts in Coimbatore created an impression in the mind of the electorate that the govt. is not governing at all.

Prem Panicker (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:56)

LADIES AND GENTS, BJP STRATEGIST AND IDEOLOGUE GOVINDACHARYA IS JUST RE-ENTERING THE BJP PARTY OFICE IN DELHI AND ABOUT TO LOG IN TO REDIFF... STAY WITH US...

Era Sezhiyan (Mon Mar 2 1998 21:58)

Shalini: I do not visualise any such eventuality. Actually the BJP is the largest party in the alliance and there cannot be any foolish attempt on the part of any allied party to ditch the BJP. The BJP also cannot afford to ditch any of its following in its present position of need to gather more support to form a government.

Era Sezhiyan (Mon Mar 2 1998 22:0)

Bal: the results of the elections has certainly given a shot in the arm of the AIADMK, hoping to recapture power in the next Assembly election. I won't call it an abberation. This is an unexpected turn for DMK-TMC combine, which took much for granted of the electorate in TN.

Era Sezhiyan (Mon Mar 2 1998 22:2)

Kgpite: I do not know what efforts are being taken in Delhi to bring in more members from other parties. Because both the Congress and the BJP will be competing to corner the required number. It will be good for democracy if they do it in aproper way so that the arrangemnts should be long-standing and acceptable to the people.

K GOVINDACHARYA, KEY STRATEGIST, GENERAL SECRETARY BJP (Mon Mar 2 1998 22:2)

The blame of the electoral reverses should not be heaped at the door of the so-called anti-incumbency factor alone. This time the electoral results have been affected by various factors -- the performance of the MP, lively contact with the electorate, constituency-level election planning by the BJP and by our adversaries too. These are the factors which influenced the electoral results in favour of the Congress in Maharashtra...

K GOVINDACHARYA, KEY STRATEGIST, GENERAL SECRETARY BJP (Mon Mar 2 1998 22:4)

I will cite a few examples. Southwest Maharashtra has been a stronghold of the Congress. In the 1996 elections, because of rebellion, the BJP snatched approximately six seats in that region. This time that malady was contained effectively. That was the reason for the Congress's gain in that region...

Prem Panicker (Mon Mar 2 1998 22:5)

Mr Govindacharya>> In Pune, a considerable section of the electorate kept quoting Bal Thackeray's famous "beggar in a Mercedes Benz" line about Suresh Kalmadi. Elsewhere, some vulgar language used by Thackeray in some speeches was also blamed for turning off the voters, especially women. Your reading of the impact, plus or minus, of Thackeray in Maharashtra?

Saisuresh Sivaswamy (Mon Mar 2 1998 22:5)

Mr Govindacharya: Why does the BJP increasingly look like the Indian cricket team under Tendulkar -- with due apologies to Prem Panicker -- you know, so near yet so far kind of thing? What is it about your party that does not convince more Indians than you did in 1996 -- since you have piggybacked to this present position thanks to your allies?

Era Sezhiyan (Mon Mar 2 1998 22:5)

Mthu: No, the support the voters gave the PMK, MDMK, ADMK or to the DMK-TMC parties are not on consideration of regional or local issues. The PMK did not fight to champion the cause of the Vanniars alone. It joined the alliance to enable the BJP to form a stable govt through a free poll. The question of caste considerations does not enter the picture.

K GOVINDACHARYA, KEY STRATEGIST, GENERAL SECRETARY BJP (Mon Mar 2 1998 22:6)

Then the Congress sttruck an alliance with the Samajwadi Party and the RPI which helped them consequentially in and around Bombay, including parts of Thane and Pune too. That is the prime reason for BJP's defeat in that region. In Vidharbha region BJP presence is new more work is needed to consolidating our position. The Congress has more seasoned leaders at the block and district level. That fetched them success in Vidharbha...

K GOVINDACHARYA, KEY STRATEGIST, GENERAL SECRETARY BJP (Mon Mar 2 1998 22:8)

It is not the actual performance of the governments that counts in the elections; the impression of the performance also counts. In Maharashtra more PR was needed to propogate our achievments and to explain our failures, if any...

Era Sezhiyan (Mon Mar 2 1998 22:8)

Ravikc: The TMC-DMK combine was confident that their performance in the 1996 elections would be repeated ipso facto. But at the time it was an anti-Jayalalitha emphasis that got them the vote. Now that JJ is not in power, the same approach did not benefit them.

Era Sezhiyan (Mon Mar 2 1998 22:10)

I am thankful for the keen interest and the probing questions put to me on the emerging political situation in India in general and TN in particular by this interaction. I also benefitted.Thank you.

K GOVINDACHARYA, KEY STRATEGIST, GENERAL SECRETARY BJP (Mon Mar 2 1998 22:10)

Sai: We are a growing party and has scaled the heights from two members in Parliament to 162 in 1996. Whereas Congress has about 25 per cent of constant votes in its favour, because it had the opportunity to be in the government for more than four decades. For the BJP it has becomes an uphill task to scale that hump. But we have consistently progressed and, in due course of time, we will climb the summit... Naturally, with a two-third majority...

Rediff @ Netcafe Madras (Mon Mar 2 1998 22:11)

Welcome to all from Saktivel, General Secretary, Tamil Nadu Congress Committee(I) in Madras.

K GOVINDACHARYA, KEY STRATEGIST, GENERAL SECRETARY BJP (Mon Mar 2 1998 22:13)

Goutam: To some extent outspokenness helps in politics but if overdone it becomes counterproductive. This time, Bal Thackeray's opinion on the construction of a national monument at Rama Janmabhoomi instead of a Rama temple is one such example. Moreover the image of a strong leadership also should not be overdone to make the people passive, less responsive. These are some of the lessons we can learn...

Saisuresh Sivaswamy (Mon Mar 2 1998 22:14)

Mr Govindacharya: Are you saying that the vote in Maharashtra and Rajasthan -- or for that matter in Karnataka and other states -- have nothing to do with the state government's performance whatsoever?

K GOVINDACHARYA, KEY STRATEGIST, GENERAL SECRETARY BJP (Mon Mar 2 1998 22:14)

Kumar: About 185 for BJP and 62 for allies...

K GOVINDACHARYA, KEY STRATEGIST, GENERAL SECRETARY BJP (Mon Mar 2 1998 22:15)

We will have to search for more friends from the group of "others," and wait for favourable responses from the AGP, the TDP, Choutala's Haryana Lok Dal too...

Saisuresh Sivaswamy (Mon Mar 2 1998 22:16)

Mr Govindacharya: Frankly, did you expect to be stopped in your tracks when you appeared set to cross the 250-mark with your allies?

K GOVINDACHARYA, KEY STRATEGIST, GENERAL SECRETARY BJP (Mon Mar 2 1998 22:16)

Aparna: In our own way we have expressed our opinion. To take it or not is his discretion...

K GOVINDACHARYA, KEY STRATEGIST, GENERAL SECRETARY BJP (Mon Mar 2 1998 22:18)

Sai: We did not expect this kind of results in Maharshtra and, more so, in Rajasthan. The feedback from the cadres, party sources and the media were all conflicting. So Maharashtra was unpredictable; certainly, the Rajasthan results are unexpected...

K GOVINDACHARYA, KEY STRATEGIST, GENERAL SECRETARY BJP (Mon Mar 2 1998 22:20)

The Congress and the UF have already begun talks. It would be amusing to watch the classicist parties and the casteist parties who were prostrating before an unaccountable campaigner, Shrimati Sonia Gandhi, and the party with an ideological commitment to Marxism, will get buried in crass power games and become martyrs at the alter of pseudo-secularism...

Shaktivel (Mon Mar 2 1998 22:20)

Sudarshan: In this election, the Congress has proved that it is a force to reckon with in TN. The Congress had to compete with the money power of both the AIAADMK and DMK. When both the AIAADMK and DMK spent a minimum of 10 million in each constituency, Congress candidates in TN were left with a few 100,000s only.This is amply evident from the fact that the Congress won in three constitencies where the Congress also spent money, Nilgiris, Pudukkottai and Tenkasi.In other places also, the Congress has secured an average of 50,000 votes; Thereby it is clear that had Congress candidates been provided with as much money as those of the DMK and the AIADMK, the Congress would have won. Inspite of all these hurdles, the Congress has proved that it is a force here.

K GOVINDACHARYA, KEY STRATEGIST, GENERAL SECRETARY BJP (Mon Mar 2 1998 22:25)

Sahline: We have not decide upon that. Still we have a week's time. In two-three days' time a clearer picture will emerge... First,m we will have to take our allies into confidence and then make concerted efforts in these consultations.

Shaktivel (Mon Mar 2 1998 22:35)

Saktivel, General Secretary, Tamil Nadu Congress Committee, welcomes all readers.

Prem Panicker (Mon Mar 2 1998 23:54)

Jairam Ramesh, meanwhile, made an interesting statement just now: that if the Congress doesn't top the BJP tally, which it won't, then it has no right, either moral or constitutional, to form a government, and that his party would prefer to let the BJP form the government, and let the inherent contradictions within the BJP coalition surface.

Rediff @ Congress Office (Mon Mar 2 1998 23:55)

Ghulam Nabi Azad told Rediff 30 minutes ago that the Congress will form the government.

Prem Panicker (Mon Mar 2 1998 23:55)

However, the United Front leaders heard from thus far seem adamant that they would prefer to back the Congress in a bid to form the government, and block the BJP. The fact that the BJP is still falling short of even that 250 mark, let alone a majority, is being interpreted by UF leaders as an indication that the Vajpayee for PM slogan hasn't worked for the BJP.

Rediff @ Congress Office (Mon Mar 2 1998 23:55)

Mr Azad said that talks have already begun with the United Front and that certain Congress leaders have already met their counterparts in the other camps.

Rediff @ Congress Office (Mon Mar 2 1998 23:57)

"I want to make to clear that it is not the Congress that is keeping the BJP out of power. But the mandate of the people has once again shown that BJP is not a party that can lead the nation," Mr Azad said.

Prem Panicker (Mon Mar 2 1998 23:58)

To all who have been having problems logging in, the problem is that the response from you guys is something even we didn't anticipate... The traffic has been so huge that some of our own staff were having difficulty logging in...

Prem Panicker (Tue Mar 3 1998 0:2)

"We are very close to majority," Madan Lal Khurana said on television. His argument is that independents and others will prefer to support the BJP and give that party the remaining votes rather than risk yet another election.

Ghulam Nabi Azad (Tue Mar 3 1998 0:3)

Our party is definitely forming the next government. We are talking to like-minded parties so that a secular government will be formed.

Prem Panicker (Tue Mar 3 1998 0:3)

Interestingly, Jairam Ramesh, who doesn't seem to have a problem telling it like it is, said a while ago that hard though it was for Congressmen to admit it, the situation is that the BJP has now taken the position the Congress earlier occupied, as the central point of India's polity.

Ghulam Nabi Azad (Tue Mar 3 1998 0:4)

If we form an alliance with the United Front, the prime minister will be from the Congress party.

Ghulam Nabi Azad (Tue Mar 3 1998 0:5)

The mandate of this election is anti-BJP. BJP had four strong regional alliances -- the AIADMK, the Samata Party, the Biju Janata Dal and the Haryana Vikas Party. We are happy that despite such a strong alliance the BJP has failed to achieve the target.

Prem Panicker (Tue Mar 3 1998 0:7)

Mr AZAD>> You seem to favour forming a government, leaders like Jairam Ramesh seem opposed, Mr Kesri hasn't been heard from, Pawar expresses himself in favour of sitting out in the opposition. Has the Congress formulated its official strategy yet or, if not, when do you expect to have one in place?

Ghulam Nabi Azad (Tue Mar 3 1998 0:7)

BJP tried its best but it could not get the majority to form the government.Our number is more despite that. If the non-BJP forces had fought the elections together, we would have got 400 seats.

Ghulam Nabi Azad (Tue Mar 3 1998 0:8)

The mandate, though fractured, is for a non-BJP government. The UF partners have said in different parts of the country that there should be a Congress-led government at the Centre.

Rediff @ Congress Office (Tue Mar 3 1998 0:9)

Mr Ghulam Nabi Azad has just left for a meeting with Mrs Sonia Gandhi at 10, Janpath.

Mohan Prakash, General Secretary, Janata Dal (Tue Mar 3 1998 0:9)

EVERYONE: I am ready for your questions.

Rediff@BJP HQ (Tue Mar 3 1998 0:11)

We have Mr. Sahib Singh Verma here with us. This Jat leader who is projected by the BJP as a reply to Ajit Singh, the son of the former prime minister Chowdhury Charan Singh and the great Jat leader of yesteryear...

Prem Panicker (Tue Mar 3 1998 0:11)

Interestingly, though there is a negative swing away from the BJP in Gujarat, the party has picked up two more seats -- the reason being that the swing away from the Congress has been even greater. As far as vote shares go, the BJP has got 47 per cent, the Congress, 38 per cent, the United Front three per cent and others, 12 per cent.

Mohan Prakash, General Secretary, Janata Dal (Tue Mar 3 1998 0:12)

EVERYONE: The mandate is not clear. And the mandate is not for any party. The BJP, which used to claim that it was the only party that could form a stable government, will have depend on others, to form more coalitions, to put together a government. And every party will have to learn the coalition culture and accept it as a reality.

Rediff @ Congress Office (Tue Mar 3 1998 0:13)

The centre of action for the Congress leaders has shifted from the AICC office to Mrs Sonia Gandhi's residence. The crucial decision that Mrs Gandhi will have to take is to give her nod to to party to choose the next Congress parliamentary party leader.

Prem Panicker (Tue Mar 3 1998 0:14)

Meanwhile, party positions in Kerala. Out of 20, Cong and UDF leading 11, LDF leading 8.

Mohan Prakash, General Secretary, Janata Dal (Tue Mar 3 1998 0:15)

rajba: There were two reasons for the bad performance of the JD. Firstly, there was a split in the party just before the elections. And in Karnataka especially, there is an anti-establishment vote also. We could also not consolidate the secular vote in our favour.

Sahib Singh Verma, Chief Minister of Delhi (Tue Mar 3 1998 0:15)

Now what has happened in Haryana and Rajasthan shows that the functioning of the governments needs to improve a lot. In Haryana, the prohibition policy has failed to stop the inflow of liquor into the state.

Prem Panicker (Tue Mar 3 1998 0:18)

Prakash Karat of the CPI, on television, is now saying flat out that the BJP's Vajpayee-for-PM plank has failed, given that it does not have a majority, and that the Left will do its damndest to make sure that the BJP doesn't make it to power.

Prem Panicker (Tue Mar 3 1998 0:18)

Rediff-Delhi-Congress>> Any idea who the front runners for CPP chief are?

Sahib Singh Verma, Chief Minister of Delhi (Tue Mar 3 1998 0:19)

Whereas in Rajasthan the caste factor played an important role. Though the functioning of the government is excellent there, caste relations between the Jats and the Rajputs have soured.

There is a historical reason: The Rajputs were the rulers and the Jats of the area feel they were exploited by the people in the past.

Though, many people appreciate the way Mr. Shekhawat is working, he is not biased. But still the Congress people remind the people that Shekhawat is a Rajput and they try to encash on that.

Mohan Prakash, General Secretary, Janata Dal (Tue Mar 3 1998 0:20)

Sheila: Laloo Yadav was chargesheeted by the governor of Bihar. And our party's thesis is that the chief minister is the custodian of law. And a custodian can't stay in custody. If Janata Dal did not ask them to resign then it would have threatened the UF government.

And secondly, the organisational polls were held at the same time and Laloo Yadav lost against Sharad Yadav. And therefore, he resigned to form the RJD.

Sahib Singh Verma, Chief Minister of Delhi (Tue Mar 3 1998 0:21)

The Jats are basically with the Congress in Rajasthan. Though a large part has come out in favour of the BJP, a good number of people are still with the Congress. The third factor in Rajasthan are the Muslims. They were earlier annoyed with the Congress but now are returning to the Congress fold.

Mohan Prakash, General Secretary, Janata Dal (Tue Mar 3 1998 0:21)

Mukund: Never. Because Chandrababu Naidu is the conveneor of the UF and the chairman of the TDP. So, how can a conveneor support the BJP.

Sahib Singh Verma, Chief Minister of Delhi (Tue Mar 3 1998 0:22)

At the national level I expected we may fall short of some seats. I expected that we may cross 250 but may not get a majority. But I also thought that we may make it up because the MPs don't want to go for elections.

Mohan Prakash, General Secretary, Janata Dal (Tue Mar 3 1998 0:24)

Mr Sahib Singh Verma: The Rajasthan result shows the non-performance of the BJP government. And also the Sonia factor because the women voter participated in a big way. If you see the voting pattern, the percentage of women voters was very high.. And in rural areas, the Congress has an old base. That's why they won.

Sahib Singh Verma, Chief Minister of Delhi (Tue Mar 3 1998 0:24)

But the results from Tamil Nadu are beyond my expectation. Whereas the results from Maharashtra and Rajasthan are surprising... If we had got the seats in Rajasthan and Maharashtra according to my expectation, we could have had a majority by now...

Prem Panicker (Tue Mar 3 1998 0:25)

SAHIB SINGH VERMA> Sir, the BJP fought this election on the Vajpayee-for-PM plank. Does the fact that the party and its allies have not got a majority indicate that Vajpayee as PM has not been wholeheartedly endorsed, by at least a majority of the electorate?

Sahib Singh Verma, Chief Minister of Delhi (Tue Mar 3 1998 0:25)

I feel there are many parties in the UF which will not like to support the UF. Because their tussle in their respective states are with the Congress, and it is not possible to form a government without the Congress... Also, the Congress will not support the UF as it did it in the past... Hence, we expect support from the UF constituents.

Sahib Singh Verma, Chief Minister of Delhi (Tue Mar 3 1998 0:26)

We will also get the support from people like Chautala in Haryana and others who are not part of the UF...

Mohan Prakash, General Secretary, Janata Dal (Tue Mar 3 1998 0:26)

Shalini: It is a hypothetical question. We take collective decision. And the UF is united. And there is no way that any constituent of UF will split.

Mohan Prakash, General Secretary, Janata Dal (Tue Mar 3 1998 0:29)

Mr Sahib Singh Verma: The support of the BJP is saturated. And only if they make 273, can they form the government. Otherwise, it is not any party's responsibility to form the government. In the last elections the BJP, which was pointing out that others are not allowed to form the government, still cannot form a government with 11 major allies. And you talk of stability?

Sahib Singh Verma, Chief Minister of Delhi (Tue Mar 3 1998 0:29)

I don't expect any division in the Congress now....

Sahib Singh Verma, Chief Minister of Delhi (Tue Mar 3 1998 0:30)

We'd not like to break any party. If they come on their own, we would welcome them. Inducements are not needed now because the biggest inducement is that if they come with us now, they won't have to face elections. Of course, when they are a part of the government, they can get so many things done in their constituencies...

Sahib Singh Verma, Chief Minister of Delhi (Tue Mar 3 1998 0:31)

We will have to have a common minimum programme... No doubt about that.The implementation of the issues mentioned in our manifesto will need the consent of the allies...

Sahib Singh Verma, Chief Minister of Delhi (Tue Mar 3 1998 0:33)

On the 12th of March we may form the government. Atalji may take the oath on that day... All this is to be decided on March 6, when the leaders of the party meet to discuss the issues...

Mohan Prakash, General Secretary, Janata Dal (Tue Mar 3 1998 0:34)

CHiChi: The Janata Dal is not based on numbers but on it's ideology. For JD, the number of seats is not important. It's agenda is important.

Sahib Singh Verma, Chief Minister of Delhi (Tue Mar 3 1998 0:34)

We don't have to have the required numbers when we stake our claim, because the President has the set the agenda so that the government need take a confidence vote only on March 30. By then we will have the required numbers...That is all for now...

Mohan Prakash, General Secretary, Janata Dal (Tue Mar 3 1998 0:35)

Sahib Singh Verma: Let me remind you that last time you had taken the oath and formed the government for 13 days. I hope that you will not repeat your performance this time.

Mohan Prakash, General Secretary, Janata Dal (Tue Mar 3 1998 0:36)

Mr Sahib Singh Verma: I think you can form the government at the Centre only the way you did in UP.

Rediff @ Congress Office (Tue Mar 3 1998 0:37)

Though, Ghulam Nabi Azad refuses to divulge details of his trip to 10, Janpath -- he says the prime minister can either be from the Lok Sabha or the Rajya Sabha.

Rediff@BJP HQ (Tue Mar 3 1998 0:37)

That was BJP's Jat leader who is supposed to hold sway in the two Jat dominated states of Haryana, Rajasthan and parts of western UP talking to you about BJP's debacle in Rajasthan and Haryana.

Rediff @ Congress Office (Tue Mar 3 1998 0:37)

Nabi specified that the prime minister could either be an 'MP or a non MP'...

Mohan Prakash, General Secretary, Janata Dal (Tue Mar 3 1998 0:40)

The JD's agenda is social justice and secularism. Basically, the upliftment of the rural masses, the farmers, and provision of food security for the country and production of food grains according to the population of India. Also, self-reliance.

Prem Panicker (Tue Mar 3 1998 1:3)

Andhra-TDP in power, Congress the gainer; Assam-AGP-Cong; Bihar-RJD-BJP+SMP; Gujarat-RJP-BJP; Haryana-HVP+BJP-HLD+Cong; Karnataka-JD-BJP-Lok Sakthi... more....

Mohan Prakash, General Secretary, Janata Dal (Tue Mar 3 1998 1:4)

The mandate shows that the BJP's ideology has been rejected by the country. Because the BJP, wherever they ruled, have failed to win. And moreover, the places where they have won, they have not won on their own steam but that of others like Ramkrishna Hegde in Karnataka, Jayalalitha in TN and the Biju Janata Dal in Orissa.

Rediff@BJP HQ (Tue Mar 3 1998 1:12)

BJP general secretary, spokesperson and the tallest woman leader Mrs Sushma Swaraj will be with us, in the next 15 minutes...

Rediff@BJP HQ (Tue Mar 3 1998 1:14)

Her presence seems to have galvanized the entire BJP office which has suddenly become a furious beehive activity...

Mohan Prakash, General Secretary, Janata Dal (Tue Mar 3 1998 1:15)

Mr Mohan Prakash left durng the break. He said goodbye and that he enjoyed chatting with everyone.

Rediff Team, Congress HQ: (Tue Mar 3 1998 1:25)

Activity has again slumped in the Congress office. It had stirred after the arrival of Ghulam Nabi Azad who met Mrs Sonia Gandhi at 10, Janpath and an enthused Najma Heptullah who was happy with the performance of the Congress so far. Heptullah asserted that one cannot expect miracles from Sonia Gandhi as far as seats are concerned.

Rediff@BJP HQ (Tue Mar 3 1998 1:25)

Sushma Swaraj is still awaiting the call from the Doordarshan studio. Meanwhile, we are bringing Dilip Ray, former Union minister in the Deve Gowda and Gujral cabinets who is now the leader of the Biju Janata Dal, BJP's ally in Orissa.

Prem Panicker (Tue Mar 3 1998 1:26)

Meanwhile, given all the talk of Sonia Gandhi and her impact, it is interesting that all the people perceived as close to her are on the losing end. Arjun Singh has just been declared defeated. Also on the losing end, N D Tiwari, Satish Sharma, Sheila Dixit.

DILIP RAY (Tue Mar 3 1998 1:28)

We are almost reaching 260 the way it is going. For the rest we are trying to get people who want a stable government. I don't expect the UP situation here.

DILIP RAY (Tue Mar 3 1998 1:30)

We already having pre-poll alliances here. We are discussing the various possiblities and I cannot disclose anthing right now... Maybe in the next two days... This is a pre-election arrangement primarily, and whatever post-poll arrangements are likely will be worked out in the next two days...

Archana Dalmia, General Secretary, All India Mahila Congress (Tue Mar 3 1998 1:32)

I feel Sonia Gandhi cannot be held responsible for individual seats or people. She has had a tremendous impact on the voters of the country and the vote percentage for the Congress in most constituencies has gone up.

DILIP RAY (Tue Mar 3 1998 1:33)

I cannot say if TDP is with us... I don't rule out ANYTHING. It is a possiblity. In politics anything is possible... I am not like V C Shukla, who changed parties to be in power. I am not alone. I have taken the whole party with me. Nearly 90 per cent of the party workers are with me and we are a team... 95 per cent of the voters and JD workers have come with us... And almost all the JD members who were left behind have lost their security deposit, including former Union minister Srikant Jena.

DILIP RAY (Tue Mar 3 1998 1:34)

Yes, we will be pressing for the dismissal of the J B Patnaik government in Orissa. A positive vote for Vajapayee, a sympathy wave for Biju Patnaik and an anti -wave against the Congress...

Archana Dalmia, General Secretary, All India Mahila Congress (Tue Mar 3 1998 1:34)

Mr: Panicker: As far as Arjun Singh is concerned I was an observer from the AICC for Madhya Pradesh. It was an uphill task for him as he was contesting from a constituency that was totally new to him against a three-time sitting MP, Sartaj Singh.

Prem Panicker (Tue Mar 3 1998 1:36)

Archana Dalmia>> Thank you. But it doesn't quite work that way -- R L Bhatia, six time winner, loses in Amritsar. Sukhbans Kaur from Gurdaspur. And so on, so I am not too sure that Sartaj Singh's sitting MP status alone is responsible. What could be the other reasons?

DILIP RAY (Tue Mar 3 1998 1:37)

Maharashtra CM has already offered to tender his resignation... In Orissa, the situation is different and we are going to demand for the resignation of the Orissa CM.

Srikant Jena has stabbed Biju Patnaik periodically in the back, and has let him down on every occasion. Jena is everything today because of Biju Patnaik. Without Patnaik, Jena is nothing today and so lost his deposit inspite of having star campaigners. I campaigned alone. He kept boasting that he has never lost an election but today... even laymen would say that he is not a good leader.

Archana Dalmia, General Secretary, All India Mahila Congress (Tue Mar 3 1998 1:37)

Shalini: It was the party's choice to make him a candidate from there.

DILIP RAY (Tue Mar 3 1998 1:39)

We took the right decision at the right time before anything happened... The decision has changed the national post-poll scene. Our alliance with the BJP paved the way for the BJP's other alliances, like with the Trinamul Congress and Jayalalitha.

Archana Dalmia, General Secretary, All India Mahila Congress (Tue Mar 3 1998 1:40)

I personally feel that Sonia Gandhi has the charisma and the personality with the correct family background and that she should take over the party leadership. It is due to her campaigning for the party that we considerably improved upon our earlier tally of seats.

Prem Panicker (Tue Mar 3 1998 1:40)

Ms Dalmiya>> I met Girija Vyas in Baramati, when she had come down to tour Pawar's constituency. What, in your reading, went against her?

Prem Panicker (Tue Mar 3 1998 1:41)

Dilip Ray>> Does it follow that the government in Rajasthan will resign as well?

Archana Dalmia, General Secretary, All India Mahila Congress (Tue Mar 3 1998 1:42)

Mr Panicker: Mr Arjun Singh's personal stature as a national leader perhaps went against his performance, because people in his constituency probably thought that since he was not a local he would not be so acquainted with the local problems of the constituency, that he might not be as accessable to the constituents as Sartaj Singh.

Rediff@BJP HQ (Tue Mar 3 1998 1:43)

Sorry folks, there's been a slight change of programme. Sushma Swaraj has received an urgent call from home and has left the BJP office. But she's promised us that she will be back in the evening and will spend some time with Rediff...

Prem Panicker (Tue Mar 3 1998 1:45)

Archana Dalmiya> Thanks... Like I said, I am not fully convinced... I mean, in Gurdaspur, people believe that a Vinod Khanna can understand their problems better than a Bhinder can... but I'll take your word for it... :-)

Rediff@BJP HQ (Tue Mar 3 1998 1:46)

BTW, K L Sharma -- the big winner from Delhi -- returned to the BJP office to a rousing welcome. Security has been tightened in the BJP office. Both entrances to the building have been barred shut and only recognised faces are being allowed in...

Archana Dalmia, General Secretary, All India Mahila Congress (Tue Mar 3 1998 1:47)

Prathiba: I don't mean that other personalities in the Congress do not have the correct family background. But I was particularly referring to Sonia Gandhi, who belongs to a family of martyrs, who have not only helped in the freedom struggle but also sacrificed their life for the country. I particularly want to compare Atal Bihari Vajpayee to Sonia Gandhi.

Vajapyee is projected as the party's prime ministerial candidate. I would like to know what makes him worthy of the post. He was a traitor during the freedom struggle and, in 1942, during the Quit India Movement two innocent freedom fighters were hanged because he gave a statement against them to save himself and his brother.

Vajpayee's only contribution to the country is his dramatic speeches which sometimes end in vulgarity. He only believes in double-speak and will do anything to get into the seat of power.

Rediff@BJP HQ (Tue Mar 3 1998 1:47)

Coming back to Sushmaji, she really roused the BJP. It looked like something of a mela around here, with the lawn filled with people, journalists, camera crews and photographers...

Rediff@BJP HQ (Tue Mar 3 1998 1:49)

Now that she's left, things have sobered down quite a bit...

Prem Panicker (Tue Mar 3 1998 1:51)

Rediff-BJP>> *laughing* You make Sushma sound like one of those party gals!

Archana Dalmia, General Secretary, All India Mahila Congress (Tue Mar 3 1998 1:52)

Mr Panicker: Sometimes, the Indian voter is very unpredictable and in G'pur, I am surprised that the people have rejected a five-time sitting MP Sukhbans Kaur for a film star. I'm sure in the next election, people will realise that they made a wrong choice when Vinod Khanna will be nowhere to be seen as he probably will be dating with Bollywood.

Rediff@BJP HQ (Tue Mar 3 1998 1:52)

Which she is, Prem. Only, it depends on which party you are talking about...

Saisuresh Sivaswamy (Tue Mar 3 1998 1:54)

Hello Prem, I am back in the chat room, in the hope this link holds. What is the news?

Prem Panicker (Tue Mar 3 1998 1:54)

Archana Dalmiya>> I would put at least a fraction of the blame on Bhinder --- her political speeches descended into vulgar abuse, relating to how many wives he has, where the kids live, and so on. And from touring the place, I found the womenfolk in particular didn't quite care for that kind of thing. As for Vinod Khanna's effectiveness, sure, I agree, time will tell.

Prem Panicker (Tue Mar 3 1998 1:56)

Sai>> Things seem to have hit a plateau, far as I can see... the trends position holding at 244-170-101-20, every now and again the two marginals swing this way and that between the main parties, but nothing much else happening... I guess it is now over to the pols to figure out equations...

Archana Dalmia, General Secretary, All India Mahila Congress (Tue Mar 3 1998 1:57)

Vaibhav: Sonia Gandhi was initially very reluctant to let her husband enter politics after the death of Sanjay Gandhi. She sacrificed her family life and let Rajiv enter into the unstable arena of political activity. Through her various charities and trusts Sonia Gandhi has also helped various organisations and people. Which is more than what can be said about the so-called BJP leaders who have only helped divide the country and spread communal hatred.

Saisuresh Sivaswamy (Tue Mar 3 1998 1:57)

Prem: What is the bets on the next prime minister? Do you have any figures? I am told the Bombay satta bazar is rooting for Vajpayee, although I would for one like to know from where people got the impression. His chances still appear as slim as, well, Sonali Bendre's waistline.

Prem Panicker (Tue Mar 3 1998 1:57)

Rediff-BJP>> Well, knowing me, you should have a fair idea what party I am talking about. :-) Leaving the light relief aside for the moment, though, when are Mr Vajpayee and Mr Advani expected in the capital, do you know? The answer to that could tell us when we can expect a definite development.

Prem Panicker (Tue Mar 3 1998 1:58)

Sai>> How much are they offering on Pawar???

Saisuresh Sivaswamy (Tue Mar 3 1998 1:58)

Archana Dalmiya: Do you have any explanation for the Congress-BSP tie-up failing to click in Punjab?

Archana Dalmia, General Secretary, All India Mahila Congress (Tue Mar 3 1998 2:8)

Shalini: Vinod Khanna is a novice in politics. I reiterate, some people are born leaders, and I feel Sonia has all the leadership qualities that are needed in a politician, which is hardly something VK can brag about.

Saisuresh Sivaswamy (Tue Mar 3 1998 2:9)

Prem Panicker: The Congress still has not come into the reckoning; all bets are still on Vajpayee as of now -- basically because I believe the market believes that the BJP has the best chance of forming the next government. And since the Congress has not announced where it stands, the market is waiting. But if you are interested, I can lay a couple on Pawar for you. You know, bet when the stakes are low, wait for it to zoom and then make a killing. Insider trading, or some such, this is called in the share market...:-)