Reports that Reliance Industries has doubled its gas production estimate from the Krishna-Godavari basin to 80 million metric standard cubic metres a day (mmscmd) by mid-2008 - almost equal to the 84 mmscmd of gas produced in the country today - should be cause for comfort in a country which has got used to the idea of being energy-deficient.
What will bring further cheer is the fact that, apart from Reliance, which further estimates an "upside potential" of 120 mmscmd, others like the Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation are expected to start production by January 2009.
These have prompted the director-general of hydrocarbons to raise his estimate of India's total natural gas production by 2009-10 from 120 mmscmd to 188 mmscmd.
While these are early days, the perception has gained ground that the Bay of Bengal could become the North Sea of South Asia. Natural gas, a clean fuel, is also increasingly being seen as the fuel of the future.
Also, technological innovation is making the production and transportation of gas increasingly economical. Over distances of up to 4,500 km, transporting gas by pipeline is cheaper by one-third than sending it as liquefied natural gas.
LNG terminals, to store and market imported liquefied gas, are also being planned in various locations. A national gas grid is envisioned and should connect most parts of the country by 2008.
While all this is good news, most analysts look askance at the claim that India will become a gas-surplus nation in the foreseeable future. India is a negligible gas consumer when one looks at global consumption levels, but this picture will change dramatically in the coming two decades.
While natural gas consumption is projected to grow by between one per cent and three per cent in most industrialised countries, demand growth is expected to be multiples of that in China and India.
Estimates vary but mainstream opinion is that the demand for natural gas in India is expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate of over 16 per cent, to around 250 mmscmd in the next few years. Experts also say that they relate to a fairly small-scale experiment, energy mix, on the back of robust demand from gas-based power projects and the recent shift in the retail segment from diesel to CNG.
The power sector is projected to account for 71 per cent of the total incremental growth in India's natural gas demand, but it is also an important fuel in refining and industry, as also in domestic consumption, particularly for cooking and heating.
An expert committee of the Planning Commission had said in August this year that the projected fertiliser capacity would be all gas-based and non-power end uses of gas will continue to grow at 9 per cent per annum depending on GDP growth.
In fact, the former ONGC chairman, Subir Raha, had cautioned that India holds only 0.5 per cent of the world's oil and gas reserves, while Asia holds 65 per cent of global total.
Besides, the oil and gas producers, especially in West Asia, are increasingly extracting value themselves, preferring to export only the lean gas. So caution is called for before rushing to conclusions about self-sufficiency.
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