rediff.com: US mediating secretly on Kashmir: Jane's

The United States has started a secret diplomatic initiative to get India and Pakistan to settle the protracted Kashmir dispute, Jane's Intelligence Digest has said.

The sister publication of Jane's Defence Weekly said on its Web site that the initiative, centred on an American emissary of Kashmiri origin, also aims at involving Kashmiri separatist leaders based in the Indian part of the divided state.

An Indian home ministry official told AFP he had no comment, adding: "This is a very sensitive issue. I have not seen the report."

Jane's quoted unnamed sources as saying that the initiative followed President Bill Clinton's March tour of South Asia.

"During his recent visit to the subcontinent, President Bill Clinton showed a willingness to mediate between India and Pakistan, along with an urgent desire to see tensions reduced between South Asia's two nuclear-armed rivals," it said.

The Web site article said New Delhi, which has consistently rejected third-party mediation on Kashmir, which it claims as an integral part of its territory, had changed its policy recently.

"... in the wake of the emergence of a unipolar world and the internationalization of Islamic terrorism, the Indian government this time took a less rigid stance on the issue," it claimed.

India and Pakistan have fought three wars since Independence in 1947, apart from a conflict last year in divided Kashmir, which had threatened to escalate into a full-blown war.

India accuses Pakistan, which administers part of the divided Himalayan region, of fomenting a Muslim insurgency in its territory, which has claimed more than 25,000 lives since 1989.

Islamabad rejects the charge, but says it extends moral and diplomatic support to the movement.

Jane's said the "White House is using the services of an American-Kashmiri who is constantly shuttling between Delhi and Islamabad and Washington.

"Encouraged by the positive response to his efforts, President Clinton is reportedly considering nominating a personal secret representative to monitor and assist all parties involved in the negotiations."

Jane's said India's reported climbdown on Kashmir was due to increasing worries that the huge amount of resources used in monitoring the Indo-Pakistan border and fighting insurgency in Kashmir would affect the modernisation of the armed forces.

It said New Delhi, which staged shock nuclear tests in 1998, sparking a matching riposte from Pakistan, also hoped to face less global pressure to cap its nuclear programme and gain US backing for its bid for a permanent seat on an expanded United Nations Security Council.

Jane's attributed US motives to two things -- the business lobby's deep interests in the huge Indian market, which would be difficult to tap without regional peace, and Washington's desire to curb India and Pakistan's nuclear programmes.

It quoted unnamed Indian sources as saying that the Indian government's recent release of several top Kashmiri separatists from prison was a precursor for peace talks with them.

The sources claimed that New Delhi had chosen an expert team, including Kashmir Chief Minister Farooq Abdullah, to negotiate with the separatists.

Jane's said the United States had "instructed" Pakistan "not to block the possible talks or any putative peace deal between Delhi and the [Kashmiri separatist] leaders.

"According to the strategy, once India and the [separatists] work out a tentative formula to resolve the Kashmir issue, Pakistan will join the talks to find a comprehensive and lasting solution to the five-decade-old problem.

"In the meantime, the White House is pressing Islamabad to limit the activities of the fundamentalist and militant groups in Pakistan and reduce the scale of cross-border terrorist incidents so that direct India-Pakistan talks can be resumed in the next phase," Jane's said.

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