Major General (retd) Ashok K Mehta
The Taleban will be no pushover
Nearly a month after terrorist bombings in New York
and Washington, the balloon has finally gone up in
Afghanistan. But the truth is that the clandestine war
there started a week ago with special forces from
the US, UK and Russia penetrating the Hindu Kush
mountains, scouting for Osama bin Laden.
Once Prime Minister Tony Blair rushed back from Delhi on Saturday
in a chartered British Airways flight abandoning his
VC 10, and Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld returned
to Washington, it was clear D Day and H Hour had
arrived. October 7, 10 pm.
Having declared war on terrorism and forfeiting
strategic surprise the US was not going to lose the
element of tactical surprise, that is the time and
place of air strikes and ground operations. This
information was withheld till the very last from their
own military, as well as the close allies of the US.
But the inevitability of an expeditionary force with
its objectives drastically scaled down from the ones
conceived initially, was never in doubt. A Kosovo-type
operations was neither necessary nor likely to be
effective. George Bush had said: 'I'm not gonna fire a
$ 2 million missile in a $ 10 tent and hit a camel in
the butt,' bin Laden and his supporters are going to be
smoked out of their holes.
The initial attacks have been launched by 15
land-based and 25 ship-based aircraft firing
precision-guided weapons that included 50 Cruise
missiles. B1 and B2 (flown from US bases) were
employed in the attacks designed to suppress Taleban
air defence and ensure their aircraft are unable to
take to the skies. At least two waves of aircraft
targeted Kabul, Kandahar and Jalalabad. Following
these aerial attacks mainly by US aircraft and a few
Cruise missiles launched from British submarines, the
air forces have launched a hefty humanitarian
assistance programme by dropping food and leaflets
The preparation for battle was preceded by intense
political, diplomatic and intelligence networking in
garnering a global consensus on the fight against
terrorism. Strengthening the home base -- in military
parlance the firm base -- as a prelude to military
operations was completed last week. The first priority
for the US was to ensure the safety of the continent
of the United States.
A cataclysmic attack like the
one in Manhattan had not happened in the homeland
since the civil war or the British raids in 1812. Even
Pearl Harbour was not as cathartic as it happened an
ocean away and the casualties were less than two
thousand. The four weeks after Terror Tuesday were
invested in preparation for the long haul, collecting
evidence, a coalition of support and intelligence, the
key to unravelling terrorist networks worldwide.
Further, US public opinion was marshalled for the
riposte to terrorism, scrupulously distinguished from
an attack on Islam or any religion. Further Capitol Hill
authorised the president to wage war and NATO threw
in its lot with the US. At the same time, UN Security
Council resolution 1373 came out strongly against
countries that support, finance and harbour
terrorists. Almost all the 189 countries in the UN are
believed to have supported the resolution and those
that default will face sanctions.
The first battle of any military campaign has to be
won. A military commander cannot countenance failure
on the start line. It is vital for the morale of
soldiers, and the country. The US can't afford not to
win the chase for bin Laden because as Henry Kissinger once
said, if the guerrilla does not lose, he wins; if
security forces do not win they lose. It is for this
reason the military assets of the US were assembled
carefully and over a period of four weeks. Since
terrorist targets are no longer in place, the initial
attacks have been limited and proportionate.
It is now clear that the military objectives of the US
are threefold: Seizure of bin Laden, destruction and
verification of terrorists training facilities and
dismantling the Taleban regime, including destroying
its military machine.
The five-party Northern Alliance under its commanders
Ismael Khan, General Dostum, General Fahim, Khalili and Qadir
is standing by to make a renewed bid for Kabul, Herat
and Mazar-e-Sharief assisted by the US, Russia, Iran, India and Central Asian republics. Toppling
the Taleban could lead to protracted guerrilla warfare
if the Taleban does not split. Pakistan can help in
their early capitulation by switching off the tap. A
civil war in Afghanistan will result in a flood of
refugees, fleeing towards Pakistan, Iran and Central Asian republics in
that order for which humanitarian relief operations
are being conducted concurrent with military strikes.
From what is unfolding the US and UK expeditionary
forces are launching Enduring Freedom in three phases,
one overlapping the other. The first phase of
operations which has commenced, is softening surgical
strikes on military infrastructure like runways,
bridges, missile sites, radars and guns at Kabul,
Jalalabad and Kandahar. The aim is to destroy missiles
and guns that could interfere in the flight of
attacking aircraft. The Taleban are known to have
about 500 tanks, 1000 pieces of artillery, about 50
Stingers and nearly 50 aircraft. The air and missile
strikes are expected to be extended to suspected
terrorist training bases and facilities. This phase
could last from five to seven days depending on the
success of strikes.
The second phase will be a special operation by US-UK
led forces to pluck out Laden. Several mercenaries are
in the Osama hunt which has a $ 25 million bounty.
Several diversionary helicopter-borne missions will
accompany the main launch. In deference to Pakistan's
sensitivities about staging operations from its soil,
the Laden mission will be launched from Uzbekistan and
Tajikistan. Pakistan is unlikely to be used as a
staging base for any military operations.
A joint US-UK
mission with Russian logistic support to capture Laden
was planned last year from the north but abandoned due
to inadequate intelligence.
The final phase of operations to dismantle the Taleban
regime will be coordinated with operations of the
Northern Alliance. Simultaneously carrier-borne US and
UK forces operating from the Gulf of Oman will try to
seize the Taleban stronghold, Kandahar, in the south.
This is likely to be accompanied by employing US 101
or 82 Airborne Divisions, once ground fire in the
selected dropping zones has been eliminated.
The ground operations will develop from the north and the
south to take Kabul and Kandahar and later, link up.
It is possible that after the initial bombing attacks,
the Taleban may lose nerve, defect and disintegrate.
This will then allow the US led coalition against
terrorism to set up a new broad based government in
Kabul and avoid unnecessary bloodshed.
It would be a
mistake to believe the Taleban will be a pushover.
Osama bin Laden has made his final call to Muslims of
the world to unite to fight the evil of America. But
as even President Pervez Musharraf admitted, his days
and those of the Taleban are numbered.
Major General Ashok K Mehta (retd)
|
