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Jammu massacre shows limits of coercive diplomacy

• May 14: Thirty-three persons, including women and children, were killed when armed militants opened indiscriminate fire in a Himachal Roadways bus and later stormed an army camp at Kaluchak in Jammu.
• July 13: Twenty-seven persons, including 13 women, died when terrorists struck in the Qasim Nagar slum on the outskirts of Jammu.

In contrast, India's response to the latest terrorist attack in Jammu has been muted. Two days after the massacre, there has been no war rhetoric, no hard-hitting reprehension of Pakistan, and no clear articulation by the government of its strategy in the days ahead.

After the Kaluchak carnage, Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee had declared that the time had come for a decisive battle with Pakistan. Two months later, the government's anti-terror strategy vis-a-vis Pakistan seems to be running out of steam.

Officials say there are several reasons for the markedly different stance.

First, over the last two months, Defence Minister George Fernandes has at least on two occasions claimed that the infiltration of terrorists from across the border has reduced. The attack in Jammu has shown that the government's status report was wrong.

Second, despite repeated claims that the government is taking appropriate action to curb cross-border terrorism, there has not been much of an impact on the ground.

Third, India has been regularly sharing with the United States information on the status of infiltration into Jammu & Kashmir. Accordingly, Secretary of State Colin Powell came out with an assessment last week that cross-border terrorism in Kashmir has reduced considerably and it is time for India and Pakistan to resume their dialogue.

"The latest terrorist attack in Jammu proves that our coercive diplomacy has not succeeded, though we thought it did," a home ministry official told rediff.com "The government therefore needs time to come out with a new diplomatic strategy to deal with the latest strike."

Deputy Prime Minister Lal Kishenchand Advani, who visited the site of the massacre on Sunday, will make a statement in Parliament on Tuesday. But the home ministry official said Advani would not put forth any new proposals to curb terrorism in the troubled state.

"We have used all options," he said, "including the diplomatic ones, to stop cross-border terrorism. The problem before the government is that we are left with few new options."

While the government's confused handling of the latest strike is sure to elicit flak from the opposition, Advani is expected to merely declare that militant attacks will not cow the government down or stop it from holding assembly elections in Jammu & Kashmir in September.

Not many expect these continuing incidents in Jammu & Kashmir to force India to attack terrorist camps in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. The move, under consideration earlier, was dropped when the international community led by the US assured India that Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf would act to stop infiltration within a time frame.

Now India, say officials, will wait to hear what Secretary Powell has to say during his proposed visit to New Delhi later this month.

Powell's visit was meant to build on "the progress" made by India and Pakistan on the Kashmir situation. But in the wake of Saturday's carnage, it is likely that India will give him a case-by-case report to prove that Pakistan is insincere about containing cross-border terrorism.

Terror Strikes in Jammu: The complete coverage

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