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A few weeks ago, Communist Party of India-Marxist general secretary Prakash Karat told envoys of the European Union at a closed-door meeting in Delhi that the Left's strength in the 15th Lok Sabha could come down from its 2004 tally of 61 seats.
The latest internal assessment by the Left parties has put the figure in the range of 40-48 seats. But Karat has told friends not to despair, assuring that the Left's tally in the 15th Lok Sabha will not go below 40. The Communist Party of India (CPI) top leadership is a little more optimistic. It expects at least 45 seats in the forthcoming general elections.
Publicly, however, the top leaders are not ready to divulge calculations for obvious reasons. CPI boss AB Bardhan recently said that he expected "overwhelming support" for the Left in the 2009 general elections.
Apart from 25 seats in West Bengal and at least eight in their second bastion Kerala, the Left parties expect five seats in Tamil Nadu, two in Andhra Pradesh and two in Tripura. In Andhra Pradesh, the CPM and CPI have roped in N Chandrababu Naidu's Telugu Desam Party for a pre-poll alliance in the state. Similarly, in Tamil Nadu, the two communist parties have entered into a seat-sharing agreement with J Jayalalithaa's All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam.
In Tamil Nadu, the CPI and the CPM are expecting three seats each from Jayalalithaa. In Andhra Pradesh, Naidu is not ready give more than two seats each to the two parties. Currently, the CPM and CPI together have two seats in Andhra Pradesh and four seats in Tamil Nadu.
According to the internal assessment of the CPI and the CPM leadership, Bihar, Orissa and even Rajasthan could help stretch its tally beyond 40 seats--which is essential if they want to exercise some manoeuvering in the post-poll situation. For the first time, the CPM and the CPI have entered into an alliance with the CPI-ML in Bihar. "We are expecting we will get at least one seat each," said a top CPM leader.
In Orissa, its newly found ally--Naveen Patnaik of the Biju Janata Dal--will leave the Sundargarh seat for the CPM and Jagatsinghpur for the CPI. Also, the CPM and the CPI will get four and five Assembly seats from Patnaik, respectively. Along with the Lok Sabha elections, Assembly polls will also be held in Orissa.
Apart from these seats, the Left leadership expects to win the Sikar seat in Rajasthan and the Inner Manipur seat. Jorhat in Assam, Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Hazaribagh in Jharkhand are also on the Left's radar of optimism.
While the Left Front is pitted against the strong wave in favour of Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal and is plagued by severe infighting in Kerala, many Left leaders claim the unity of the Left parties will hold key to their fortune in this election. "On March 22, we had attended a workers' meet at Begusarai in Bihar. Cutting across party line, at least 7,000 workers came and many of them said: 'it is not the question of CPM or CPI, it is the prestige of the red flag we have to save,'" says CPI's national executive member Pallab Sengupta .
Forward Bloc general secretary Debabarat Biswas added: "The four Left parties know this election is a dress-rehearsal for the 2011 Assembly elections in West Bengal. If we don't put up a united fight, we might lose Bengal after two years. This will act as a huge motivation."
