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Future Tense

By Mohandas Menon
February 09, 2003 11:38 IST
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Does a team's form leading up to the World Cup determine the next champion? Judging from the number of people (and pundits) who have Australia and South Africa on their lips as winners of World Cup 2003, it would seem so.

But the figures suggest otherwise. Except in the 1979 edition of the tournament, which the West Indies firmly entered as favourites and finally won, the top team based on form prior to the championship has never won the World Cup.

In 1983, the West Indies, who were then the top one-day side, were toppled by seventh-placed India.

Form cuts both ways. In 1987, Australia, who were placed fifth in the rankings before the tournament began, took home the trophy. In 1992, the Aussies who were at the top of the table, failed even to qualify for the last four.

The 1996 champion, Sri Lanka, had a miserable time prior to the tournament and were placed a lowly sixth with a win percentage of 43. But the team went on to win the title without losing a single game in the tournament.

Ditto South Africa in the last World Cup. Having won 75 per cent of the matches in the four years running up to 1999, the Proteas were firm favourites. But it was the fourth-placed Australians (win percentage: 50.66) who took away the honours.

So, what do these figures mean in 2003? Australia (win percentage 73.56) and South Africa (64.42) enter the fray as the top-two teams. Will they buck the trend? Or will the current favourites end up biting the dust?

And in the midst of all that, is there hope for India, which enters the tournament placed fifth in the rankings? Or is it cold comfort?

 

1971-75 P W L D T %win Team position in the 1975 WC
Pakistan 3 2 1 - - 66.66 failed to qualify for the semis
Australia 7 4 3 - - 57.14 lost in the final
West Indies 2 1 1 - - 50.00 won the WC
England 15 7 5 3 - 46.66 lost in the semi-final
New Zealand 7 1 3 3 - 14.28 lost in the semi-final
India 2 - 2 - - 00.00 failed to qualify for the semis

1975-79 P W L D T %win Team position in the 1979 WC
West Indies 7 5 2 - - 71.42 won the WC
New Zealand 5 3 2 - - 60.00 lost in the semi-final
England 17 9 7 1 - 52.94 lost in the final
Australia 10 5 4 1 - 50.00 failed to qualify for the semis
Pakistan 10 3 7 - - 30.00 lost in the semi-final
India 5 1 4 - - 20.00 failed to qualify for the semis

1979-83 P W L D T %win Team position in the 1983 WC
West Indies 34 23 11 - - 67.64 lost in the final
New Zealand 39 23 15 1 - 58.97 failed to qualify for the semis
England 40 19 21 - - 47.50 lost in the semi-final
Pakistan 25 11 13 1 - 44.00 lost in the semi-final
Australia 64 28 32 4 - 43.75 failed to qualify for the semis
India 27 10 17 - - 37.04 won the WC
Sri Lanka 15 4 9 2 - 26.66 failed to qualify for the semis

1983-87 P W L D T %win Team position in the 1987 WC
West Indies 80 61 17 1 1 76.25 failed to qualify for the semis
England 49 26 23 - - 53.06 lost in the final
Pakistan 78 38 36 4 - 48.71 lost in the semi-final
India 73 32 36 5 - 43.83 lost in the semi-final
Australia 82 35 41 5 1 42.68 won the WC
New Zealand 48 16 29 3 - 33.33 failed to qualify for the semis
Sri Lanka 42 8 32 2 - 19.04 failed to qualify for the semis
Bangladesh 2 - 2 - - 00.00 did not participate

1987-92 P W L D T %win Team position in the 1992 WC
Australia 75 55 18 1 1 73.33 failed to qualify for the semis
Pakistan 79 43 34 1 1 54.53 won the WC
West Indies 79 41 33 3 2 51.89 failed to qualify for the semis
England 48 23 22 2 1 47.91 lost in the final
India 72 31 39 1 1 43.06 failed to qualify for the semis
New Zealand 59 23 36 - - 38.98 lost in the semi-final
South Africa 3 1 2 - - 33.33 lost in the semi-final
Sri Lanka 50 12 38 - - 24.00 failed to qualify for the semis
Bangladesh 7 - 7 - - 00.00 did not participate
Zimbabwe - - - - - - failed to qualify for the semis

Team P W L D T %win Team position in the 1996 WC
Australia 75 45 29 - 1 60.00 lost in the final
India 63 37 24 1 1 58.73 lost in the semi-final
West Indies 78 45 30 2 1 57.69 lost in the semi-final
Pakistan 87 46 37 - 4 52.87 lost in the quarter-final
South Africa 70 33 35 2 - 47.14 lost in the quarter-final
England 38 17 21 - - 44.73 lost in the quarter-final
Sri Lanka 78 33 40 5 - 43.30 won the WC
New Zealand 65 23 38 3 1 35.38 lost in the quarter-final
Zimbabwe 31 4 24 1 2 12.90 lost first round
UAE 2 - 2 - - 00.00 lost first round
Bangladesh 3 - 3 - - 00.00 did not participate

Team P W L D T %win Team position in the 1999 WC
South Africa 76 57 16 3 - 75.00 lost in the semi-final
Sri Lanka 81 43 34 3 1 53.08 did not qualify for the super league
Pakistan 106 54 49 3 - 50.94 lost in the final
Australia 75 38 36 - 1 50.66 won the WC
West Indies 50 24 25 - 1 48.00 did not qualify for the super league
England 49 22 25 1 1 44.90 did not qualify for the super league
India 119 50 59 9 1 42.02 failed to qualify for the semis
Zimbabwe 60 24 34 - 2 40.00 failed to qualify for the semis
New Zealand 65 23 34 5 3 35.38 lost in the semi-final
Kenya 19 6 13 - - 31.58 did not qualify for the super league
Bangladesh 18 1 17 - - 05.55 did not qualify for the super league

Team P W L D T %win Team position in the 2003 WC
Australia 87 64 19 2 2 73.56 ?
South Africa 104 67 34 1 2 64.42 ?
Pakistan 108 64 42 1 1 59.25 ?
Sri Lanka 107 61 42 3 1 57.01 ?
India 118 58 56 4 - 49.15 ?
England 64 28 34 2 - 43.75 ?
West Indies 88 38 46 4 - 43.18 ?
New Zealand 89 35 51 3 - 39.32 ?
Zimbabwe 97 25 70 2 - 25.77 ?
Kenya 22 1 20 1 - 04.54 ?
Netherlands 2 - 2 - - 00.00 ?
Bangladesh 26 - 25 1 - 00.00 ?

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Mohandas Menon